A Trend. Get it right and you have gold. Get it wrong and for many independent designers, you are going out of business.
The Fashion Industry relies on projection. Just as an economist or a money manager needs to know about the fate of the financial world, retailers, buyers designers and editors need to know about the future of fashion.
In talking about “trend” to amateurs we at Nolcha are always asked. “How do they do it? Do designers sit in a little room together and decide the color for the season is going to be purple?”
But we know better. Successful businesses in fashion subscribe to trend forecasting agencies. Nolcha's Lynn Furge picked the brain of Lilly Berelovich, President and Creative Officer of Fashion Snoops one of the most successful forecasting agencies in the world to discover why sometimes it’s just better to get the opinion of an expert.
Lynn Furge: What is trend forecasting?
Lilly Berelovich: For Fashion Snoops, I am a very practical person so I see trend forecasting being an aggregation of information. We do all the research for our subscribers and lay it all out to answer the questions they need answered. It is not as mysterious as you think. It is much more us having the time to look, get all of the information that is out there and call out certain things that are going to be important. There is some sensory predictions involved, but a big chunk of it is having all of your eyes out there and putting it out to the public in a way that people can use the information to make important business decisions. What is happening on the street is more important than ever right now. What is happening in thrift shops right now is also big…music, artists, not just on the runway. A designer does not have the time to do all of that legwork and we have a team all around the world in fashion hubs that do.
There is much more Real Life Information. It is a section we have on the website. Raw information where a viewer can see it with their own eyes. We went to the event, tradeshow, etc. and this is what happened. And then analysis is our picks of what we feel will be important bases on the information we saw.
Visionary or Sensory Information does happen and they come from our view on everything else that is going on in the world.
Practical Information in terms of practical answers like what’s the most important color what key fabrics were seen what are the most important shapes are all highlighted for you and aligned with confirmation from runway and other influential sources
We try to bring clarity in the midst off all the information available
We try to offer a global view.
We try to offer a global view.
LF: How did you get your start?
LB: I was that designer who was sitting in my studio and in front of my computer and not able to travel as much as I needed to and get inspired all the time that way. I needed the resources I now provide with Fashion Snoops.
LF: What can designer learn?
LB: I think in the midst of all of the information, they need somebody to either confirm, instruct or clarify. As an independent fashion designer or retailer you need someone to say “Yes we are seeing it to” Some designers have done no research and they can garner all the information they need to but then make the next collection with their own twist. Others have an idea and are just looking to us to confirm that they are on the right track. We provide all levels of knowledge. For me it is all about clarity. Either in the confirmation or the clarity.
The fashion world has always been synched on some level. We just didn’t have the internet to group us all together and now we do.
LF: One of the major things that makes your site original is the additional trend tracking in vintage stores and street style, music festivals as well as tracking fashion’s bloggers. Please explain your reasoning behind this.
LB: You will see us shift more and more to all of these things. I think what is happening on the ground is what is shifting fashion. It could happen that the one young girl who is blogging about it in her house could be the one to set a trend. A year ago it was vintage, now it is street, music festivals, and blogging. The consumer is taking fashion into its own hands. Retailers and manufacturers are going to have to keep up with them. Our focus is always shifting. We have the pillars that people rely on like runway, tradeshows etc. We in turn are always shifting our focus. Events, upcoming designers… I love vintage and I think that is more and more important. What is happening on the street is shifting in a huge way. We no longer have to scour the streets for cool fashion. People are photographing themselves and putting it up on-line.
LF: How did you choose the team?
LB: Most of the people who make any decisions are people with experience on the other end. They have had to make the kind of decisions on the other end and now they trend forecast for us. They need to have had the same experience as the user. The subscriber knows who they need the decisions to come from. Retailers, buyers, merchandisers, designers.
“For example a retailer always needed to know whether white is going to be important to spring or not.” There is a logic as to how we forecast. It is not that random. There is always a confirmation of reality for us. The researchers are mostly fashion students with some fashion experience, they are young and excited and out on the streets everyday. They are our ears and eyes but the decision makers in the company have had the real life experience.
LF: What is your take on the consumer finally having a voice? It seems in the past fashion magazines and retailers told consumers what they needed to think was cool. Now the consumer is talking back.
LB: It is a dance, it is a partnership. The information is no longer just one way. The consumers are going to be able to show retailers what they want by blogging. Both parties now have an eye on one and other. We need to realize that retailers need to be more lenient towards what the consumer wants. As a consumer we become less and less patient with what is in the retail environment. The consumer now has growing influence to drive their purchases that the editor’s used to have all by themselves.
Certain trends are not so short lived anymore (one month its vests, then the next harem pants, then everyone needs to wear scarves). That was truly the retailer driving it. Now that it is advanced communication, trends are around longer. New designers need to watch that as well. For them to be successful they need to offer their voice and style, see what the consumer does with it and then evolve that original vision again and again
It breeds open mindedness in retailers and fashion houses.
LF: What do you do when it comes to color? How important is that in fashion?
LB: Color is so important. It is the first sensory thing consumers see even before touch, when it comes to fashion, so getting it wrong is a huge problem, especially if you are creating large orders of products for a season.
LF: Have you had to re-adjust your predictions and ideas with the economy changing for the worse this past year?
LB: We have to re-adjust everything but that is our job, to forecast the trends as the world evolves, no matter how fast of a rate it is changing. We have to be in-tune with all of the situations globally.
If we are only looking at retail and retail is suffering then what are we learning from that? The economy forces us to be more creative and look in areas we have never looked at before. It gives more opportunities to people that didn’t have that opportunity before. It is more about need and not about people wanting anymore.
We have had to call more bold statements. Clear call outs. Introduce Lifestyle to our site so they understand their clients and what they are buying. Introduce blogging so retailers know what people are wearing on the street. Retailers should look at new upcoming designers to introduce freshness into their stores.
Now is the opportunity for smaller brands to focus on what they do best and stay true to that.
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